Howard Raiffa

You know success depends on making smart choices

An effective decision-making process will fulfill these six criteria:

• It focuses on what’s important.

• It is logical and consistent.

• It acknowledges both subjective and objective factors and blends analytical with intuitive thinking.

• It requires only as much information and analysis as is necessary to resolve a particular dilemma.

• It encourages and guides the gathering of relevant information and informed opinion.

• It is straightforward, reliable, easy to use, and flexible

The first five— Problem, Objectives, Alternatives, Consequences, and Tradeoffs— constitute the core of our approach and are applicable to virtually any decision.

The greatest danger in formulating a decision problem is laziness. It’s easy to state the problem in the most obvious way, or in the way that first pops into your mind, or in the way it’s always been stated in the past.

Why am I even considering it?

Remember that defining your decision problem is itself a decision problem, the resolution of which will profoundly influence your ultimate choice

But in 99 out of 100 cases, spending extra time defining the problem pays off handsomely in the end. It increases the odds that you’ll make the smart choice.

What do you really need?

What do you really want?

What are your hopes?